Mark Manning: RealMoney Column

By Mark Manning

RealMoney.com Contributer

 Next week could certainly be interesting after the Fed’s decision to stay flat failed to inspire the market and only produced a feeble attempt to rally on Wednesday. The market then sold off hard all day Thursday on very heavy volume. That certainly has taken some of my short-term sentiment indicators to extremes, and the spike low is likely to lead to a short-term bounce next week.

 The selloff pushed the Dow below its March lows that I stated in recent columns was likely to happen. Now it will be important to see if that move produces enough panic to put in an intermediate-term low. If the new low doesn’t hold and the index continues to trade below that level, then the January and March lows are liable to turn into significant resistance levels, and that could indicate another move lower is in the cards.

 

The key to where we’re headed is likely to appear when the market shows its hand next week, as it will certainly attempt to bounce from these levels. The strength of that bounce along with the participation of leading stocks will certainly carry a lot of information.

 

Retirees: Time May Be Right to Buy

A bit of good news: This might be the right time to find a bargain, especially for buyers approaching their retirement years who can afford to take their time.

Not only are home prices down more than 25 percent in some parts of the country, there remains a glut of inventory on the market in traditional retirement destinations like Florida.

Of course, anyone looking to buy can also find good reasons to take a wait-and-see attitude, like the fact that good deals may not exist in every location, and no one really knows if prices will continue to decline.

“It’s like missing the top of the market — it’s the same thing with the bottom,” said Maurice Veissi, president of Veissi and Associates in Miami. “Generally you know it’s happened because you’re looking in the rearview mirror and it’s passed you by.”

According to the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the average price for a single-family home is down nearly 27 percent in Miami compared with a year ago, versus a 25 percent decline in Phoenix and a 27 percent drop in Las Vegas.

Markets that were at the forefront of the recent run-up in home prices and are now leading the decline — a pattern reflected to varying degrees in other markets in all three states. But that means there are deals to be found in places where buyers previously felt priced out of the Florida lifestyle.

Sarasota market hits highest sales figure since March 2007

Home sales in the Sarasota MLS for May 2008 stood at 627 – the highest level in 14 months, and approximately 92 percent higher than the sales in January 2008. In 2008, sales have been increasing each month, possibly due to the influence of the new property tax portability law enacted in late January. Sales have climbed from 329 in January to 423 in February, 514 in March and 567 in April.
 
“This year, the Sarasota real estate market has been a beacon of hope as the state and national markets continue to struggle,” said Helen Sosso, 2008 SAR President. “I believe our local agents have embraced the concept of a buyers’ market, and educated sellers on the realities of pricing. We still have advantageous interest rates, and our communities’ natural and cultural amenities always attract buyers.”
 
The May 2008 report continued to reflect strength in pending sales, which stood at 692 – the second highest level since June 2006.  Last month’s pending sales stood at 756, the highest in the period.   In May 2007 only 541 pending sales were reported.  Like closed sales, pending sales have been edging upward since December 2007, when there were only 374 pending sales reported. Pending sales reflect contracts executed by buyers and sellers, and indicate more closings in upcoming months and an improving market in the early summer months.
 
Inventory levels were lower in May 2008 for the third month, and are the lowest they have been since February 2006.  Still, with 9,500 single family and 5,100 condos listed, buyers have a huge selection of more affordably priced housing to select from.  The reduced inventory is a combination of fewer properties being listed, and increasing sales numbers.  As the inventory continues to decline, the market will come back to more balance.  As we approach equilibrium, the buyer’s market we’ve been experiencing will be gone, and price appreciation will creep back into the market.
 
In general, the Sarasota MLS statistics show a rebound throughout 2008 – every month seeing stronger numbers than the month before. In fact, Sarasota statistics have been stronger in recent months than sales in the Miami market, which is a much bigger geographic and demographic area.
 
In the local Sarasota market, we have seen the trend already beginning toward lower inventories, higher sales, and a leveling of prices after several months of declines. The May figures reflect this new reality.

Jim Soda has recently received the “Quality Service Certification.”

Jim Soda has recently received the “Quality Service Certification.” This program teaches how to deliver the best service quality and customer satisfaction. Sellers are encouraged to go online and fill out surveys about their real estate experience. Based on feedback from 250,000 consumer surveys of more than 500 participating companies and 30,000 realtors, Jim Soda and Prudential Palms Realty’s downtown office was recently voted one of the top ten offices in the country for service excellence.

           

A 4TH OF JULY “MUSIC ON MAIN” STREET – LAKEWOOD RANCH

The monthly “MUSIC ON MAIN” concert series falls on Independence Day holiday. The popular Music on Main is held the first Friday of each month falls on the 4th of July this summer. Main Street at Lakewood Ranch is inviting the public to a free Independence Day celebration during Music on Main in July. Lots of red, white and blue will be evident in the many patriotic giveaways that will be handed out for the holiday that night. The day begins with Little Bookworms “bubble wrap fireworks”, story telling by Granny Goose, and arts, crafts, and face painting. The Braden River VFW Post 12055 is the charity that month and they will kick-off the concert festivities with a patriotic parade down Main Street beginning at 6:00 pm featuring a military color guard. The Post Commander will lead the public in the pledge of allegiance before the band starts playing on stage. At 7:00 pm, center stage will feature the talents of “Take Three”, the sounds of the Andrews Sisters singing a tremendous, heart-felt tribute to all four branches of the service. The concert will continue through 9:00 pm when attention will turn to the large screen showing our own version of fireworks – “Virtual Fireworks” – to light up the big screen with an impressive projected fireworks show at dark (approximately 9:20 pm). Plan to spend your 4th of July this year on Main Street with children’s activities starting at 3:00 pm by Little Bookworms and the Music on Main concert beginning at 6:00 pm with “virtual fireworks” starting at 9:20 pm. **Guests are encouraged to bring chairs, but please leave coolers at home. Dogs are welcome, but must be on a short leash. Overflow parking is available at LWR Medial Center across the street. Main Street at Lakewood Ranch – Shopping that’s anything but ordinary Main Street at Lakewood Ranch is the fashionable shopping venue located across from the Lakewood Ranch Medical Center on Lakewood Ranch Blvd. 30 stylish boutiques, restaurants and specialty stores blend to make a visit to Main Street’s intimate, small-town village theme a destination worth repeating. For more information, visit www.shoplakewoodranchmainstreet.net.

Good News On Jumbo-Conforming Rates As Spread Narrows

Interest rates on certain types of jumbo loans are finally dropping out of the stratosphere.

Rates on jumbo-conforming loans, which were approved by Congress in February for use through the end of 2008, are currently 6.59 percent, according to HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.J., compared to an average of 6.46 percent for similar loans with smaller balances. Non-conforming jumbos are averaging 7.4 percent.

At J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the volume of jumbo-conforming applications has doubled since prices began to fall in early May. For some California lenders, jumbo-conforming loans now account for as much as 25 percent of applications, says Pete Ogilvie, president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.

“Most of the activity is in purchases, which is nice because it opens up the market for entry-level homes,” Ogilvie says

Main Street At Lakewood Ranch Hires Property Manager

Pat Westerhouse has joined Lakewood Ranch Commercial Realty as General Manager/Leasing Representative. In this capacity she will provide all property management functions for the Main Street lifestyle center of retail, office space and residential. Her duties include budget administration, coordination of marketing activities, event management, sponsorship participation, and tenant and public relations.
Westerhouse previously held the position of General Manager/Leasing Representative of Old Hyde Park Village in Tampa. She had been there for 23 years and was a key player in the success of the community. Prior to that Westerhouse served as an audit supervisor with Coopers & Lybrand (now Price Waterhouse Coopers).
“We could not find a more qualified and suited professional for this position than Pat,” states John Swart, president of Lakewood Ranch. “She brings a wealth of experience and an abundance of enthusiasm and energy to Main Street.”
Westerhouse is a graduate of the University of South Florida and also holds her license as a Florida Real Estate Broker. She is licensed in Florida as a Community Association Manager and Certified Public Accountant and is a Certified Shopping Center Manager and Certified Leasing Specialist. In addition, Westerhouse is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers.
“This is an excellent opportunity for me, and I look forward to the challenge of working with a new community,” notes Westerhouse. “I am impressed with the tenant mix on Main Street and the superb planning and development that has gone into this mixed use facility.”
Main Street, which opened its first shops in December 2005, is the first mixed use facility in Manatee County to offer combined residential, retail, office and commercial components. It is quickly becoming the heart of Lakewood Ranch and the hub for upscale shopping and dining in the Sarasota-Manatee community.

Asolo Theatre celebrates closing night of Working

Final performance sponsored by Jim Soda and The Jim Soda Group of Prudential Palms Realty. 

 Sarasota, FL (PRWEB) June 7, 2008 – Working a Musical from the book by Studs Terkel adapted by Stephen Schwartz & Nina Faso offered 6 amazingly talented individuals who continuously evolved in to various work force fields.  The Asolo Repertory Theatre was home to this w ell crafted and choreographed thought provoking piece.  

 The Jim Soda Group together with Jim Soda was all in attendance.  Saturday evening’s performance may have been Working but it was effortless for everyone in attendance said Jim Soda, Realtor and Sponsor of Saturdays final curtain.  Evenings like that remind me of why Sarasota, FL is known for its rich cultural arts and I am thrilled to be a part of it said Soda. Their depiction of each character’s life was so vivid said Soda’s Team. 

 The evening wrapped up with hors d’oeuvres and a DJ in the Asolo lobby to celebrate a great run.  Those attending were able to sign up for a raffle of Wine Connoisseur Openers compliments of The Jim Soda Group and Champagne compliments of Coastal Liquors.  Visit www.jimsoda.com and http://randyhrealtor.blogspot.com/ for excellent tools to learn more about our community and real estate.

2008 Suncoast Offshore Grand Prix Returns to Sarasota

 This year’s 24th Annual Suncoast Offshore Grand Prix promises fun and excitement for the entire family. This year’s Festival and Race is dedicated to Kevin Brown for his tireless efforts towards the Festival for so many years. Over the past 23 years, the festival has given more than $14 million towards the construction of facilities that provide programs and services to physically and mentally challenged children and adults. Special guests arriving into town for this year’s Festival include Captain Keith Colburn & Crew of the fishing vessel Wizard, featured on Discovery Channel’s “Deadliest Catch” presented by Caterpillar Marine Power. They will be making appearances at Powerboats By The Bay (July 4 & 5) and at “Meet and Greet Who’s In the Driver’s Seat” on July 5. Also in town will be Chef Marc who has appeared on the Food Network and currently airs a show called “The Best of Everything with Marc Cummings” on Wealth TV. The Festival begins on June 28with a Golf Tournament and Kickoff Party, where a special tribute to Kevin Brown will take place. Later in the week the Festival Parade of Boats will take place on Thursday, July 3, followed by something new called “Powerboats On Main Street” where spectators can view race boats up close on Main Street after the Parade. Powerboats By The Bay will be held three days this year (July 4-6) with bus service from Ed Smith Stadium all three days for a $1 fare each way (10 and under free). Once again this year fans of all ages can meet participating race teams and special guests for autographs & photos at the “Meet and Greet Who’s In The Driver’s Seat” Reception at the Hyatt on Saturday, July 5, from 10:30 a.m. – Noon in the ballroom of the Hyatt Regency Sarasota. The racing action takes place on Sunday, July 6, with two races off Lido Beach at 11:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. presented by Super Boat International Productions. The race will also be televised live at Powerboats by the Bay on a Jumbo Tron under a large tent. 

Lakewood Ranch’s Average Prices Rise and Inventory Falls

 During the first five months of 2008 average sales prices in Lakewood Ranch increased by 4.5% and median sales prices held almost steady over the same period last year.  The average selling price as reported through the Sarasota Multiple Listing Service rose from $582,975 in 2007 to $608,585 in 2008 in Lakewood Ranch. Median selling prices held almost steady at $432,500 in 2007 compared to $442,500 in 2008.

            The inventory level of existing single family homes in Lakewood Ranch has also declined significantly during the first five months of 2008 after rising in the third and fourth quarters of 2007. The standing inventory is 363 listed single family homes compared to 424 at the end of 2007 and is at its lowest point since early in 2006.

            “This increase in prices is very good news for Lakewood Ranch and the overall Sarasota/Manatee real estate market, especially when it is coupled with the falling inventory levels in Lakewood Ranch,” says Milt Flinn, president of LWR Communities, LLC.

            Lakewood Ranch serves as the centerpiece of the central west Florida real estate market and during 2005 received national attention as the epicenter for the real estate boom in the area. The Green-certified, master-planned community of Lakewood Ranch in 2004 and 2005 had lotteries for potential home buyers and sold more than 1,000 units in 2005 alone.

            “The benefits and amenities available for someone who moves to Lakewood Ranch have not changed; we have actually improved on what we had to offer in 2005.”  Flinn also notes, “We always knew Lakewood Ranch would start to recover first, it’s where people want to live and raise their families.”

             Since 2005 Lakewood Ranch offerings have grown significantly.  Both Main Street and San Marco Plaza opened, with the movie theater and numerous dining and shopping opportunities.  A new shopping complex, which includes a Publix, opened at Lakewood Crossings, along with many other businesses.  Two new communities, Country Club East, with its new golf course, and The Lake Club have opened and new shopping is coming to Lorraine Corners. Two new elementary schools have also opened since 2005.

            Lakewood Ranch has three information centers, open seven days a week.  The Community Ambassadors offer free car tours with an overview of the community.  More than 40 models and showcase homes are open daily in The Country Club, Country Club East, The Lake Club and Greenbrook.  More information and directions can be found at www.lakewoodranch.com  and www.TheLakeClubLWR.com .